Probability and odds

Probably (pun intended) the most difficult part of my argument for God is to properly convey the unlikelihood of our universe forming because of an unplanned and undirected sequence of events. The odds against the existence of our universe are literally astronomical. Even so, I may have finally stumbled upon a way to present the improbability in language anyone can understand, or layman's terms, using the NCAA basketball tournament popularly known as "March Madness." Recently, ESPN published a rather remarkable story about an otherwise unremarkable neuropsychologist named Gregg Nigl. What was Mr. Nigl's specific claim to fame? Had he made some innovative medical discovery that was some groundbreaking innovation in the world of sports? No. No skill was involved in his otherwise noteworthy "accomplishment." Did he break some unique sports record like hitting the most bullseyes in a game of darts, or somehow make his mark in the Guinness Book of World Records? Nope, that wasn't it, either. What did Gregg Nigl do in 2019 that was so remarkable? He was the first person known to have gone a perfect 48-0 in predictions through two rounds of the NCAA tournament. The odds against picking a perfect NCAA tournament bracket have been estimated as between a somewhat modest 1 in 120 billion for an experienced gambler to correctly guess all the tournament winners to treating the outcome of every game as a coin flip. Those "coin flip" odds have been estimated to be a stunning 1 in 9.2 quintillion. But in 2019 for the first time in history, Nigl's picks were perfect … [Read more...]